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Looking back, we can see that the most fundamental macroeconomic factors that affect the stock market, the stock market running around the macro-economic cycle, this
Center up and down fluctuations.
The economic cycle not only affects the market rate of return also affect the amplitude of the market ,2006-2009 due to a combination of internal and external factors lead to economic prosperity, recession, creating an A share of 100% ultra-year amplitude characteristics of unilateral city.
Looking ahead, experienced in 2009\’s \”policy of recovery\” in this circumstance, in 2010 after the further recovery will be.
However, after 2010 the economic cycle at a slow recovery to a good stage show more economic growth, normalization features, normal-oriented market economy indicates that the amplitude is expected to narrow next year, the market will be a unilateral change in city to balance the city.
Normalization of economic and market large-scale operating characteristics underpin the stock market changes.
Overall, in 2010 the economic cycle, or whether capital markets can be summarized as follows: return to normalization, stabilization and balance-oriented.
With regard to investment in 2010, the logic, we can see from the macroeconomic changes in the logic of capital markets, investment logic, and only grasped the fundamentals, before an accurate grasp of the market, 2010nba regular season ranked a preliminary look at the macroeconomic, nba scoring Ranking
, has the following characteristics: First, continued economic recovery.
2010 global economic recovery, while China\’s economy will continue to recover the growth rate in 2009 will further increase, according to macro-policy trends as well as major agencies predicted that in 2010 China\’s GDP growth will remain at 10% or more, according to the base year,
point of view, year on year, said a quarter may be a larger increase would be relatively 23-quarter drop in the fourth quarter will be slightly increased; chain look, GDP will rise steadily.
This will bring confidence in the pick-up, demand has picked up, production will go up again, profitability
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rebound, prices rise.
2, is expected to end by 2010, a significant rebound in demand, where the terminal refers to the consumption and export, both the 2010 growth.
Will replace the Government\’s high investment.
I expect that next year nba regular season ranked in consumer demand can reach about 18%; import and export growth of around 10% of investment tends to decline in the normalization of the state is expected to drop to about 30%.
1, consumer demand to upgrade from: (1) the employment situation improved.
We have reason to believe that with the enhancement of the profitability of industrial enterprises will lead to the improvement of employment situation the other hand, the increase in employment will boost consumer confidence.
Taken together, will promote an increase in consumer demand.
(2) the upgrading of consumption structure and the introduction of policies to stimulate consumption.
The path of population migration study, we can see that 80 years is the peak period of birth, which some people face \”married,\” they dare to credit, in the next five years constitute a \”consumer dividend.\”
Secondly, in response to this crisis, the Government introduced a variety of policies to stimulate consumption, some time ago we are happy to see, car allowance, United Kingdom Witten converter, home appliances and subsidies in 2010 have not changed, and even intensified, proud shield hardware
firewall, which had very strong consumer market is undoubtedly a boost.
Finally, China is a \”consumer backward countries,\” the proportion of our consumption is only about 35%, while India is 50% or more, the United States more than 70%, therefore, in the \”structural adjustment\” in the context of consumption in 2010 will be
more policy room for imagination.
(3) The acceleration of urbanization.
According to the study of historical data in developed countries can be found, China\’s urbanization rate was 35%, is now in from 40% to 70% of urbanization, per capita 1000 U.S. dollars to 8000 U.S. dollars development stage.
This stage is the first Na Muse urbanization curve inflection point, the inflection point at least a significant acceleration effect, this phase will be significantly boosting the consumer, housing, improved.
In fact, in 30 years of reform and opening up the development process, we have greatly benefited from the economic and social development in the process of urbanization in the coming decades, we will be a long-term benefit from the process of urbanization.
Consumer demand in 2009 to undertake a level of 16.5%, with the global economy and China\’s economy continues to recover in 2010, consumption demand will continue to maintain a strong feature.
And become a coach pulling the economy.
2, external demand driven recovery in exports.
The gradual recovery in external demand, particularly in the U.S. economy bottomed out recently, will lead to China\’s export out of the woods.
OECD leading indicators for 7 months, rebounded in February 2009 from 92.5% in September, up 100.6%, OECD countries have been close to the normal level of economic growth.
PMI indicators were significantly higher in developed countries, in October, the United States, European Union, Japan\’s PMI index reached 55.7%, respectively, 50.7%, 54.3%, which indicates that the developed countries of the economic recovery has begun, indicating that China\’s export environment will improve.
Not rule out the U.S. economy-than-expected turn for the better, I think this situation is likely to happen because the United States from the fact that the policy has been to stimulate the economy, according to theoretical time-delay (approximately 12-20 months), just in the
turn for the better end of the year.
3, the investment will become more commonplace technology.
We say that a crisis when the use of investment funds out of the crisis is not wrong, but when the economic recovery is not the wine that should continue to maintain a high amount of investment.
2009, 4 trillion, and the introduction of ten industrial revitalization plan, driving substantial growth in investment, but in 2010, qq space player clone, new projects and the government investment plan will be less than in 2009, but in 2010,
, there are 4 trillion in the central capital investment of around 600 billion, even lower, but still can not be too low, can be maintained at about 30%.
In 2010, I focused on analyzing the economic troika of consumer, because the consumption of things to watch for most, the greatest potential and the best chance.
Corresponds to the industry that we can see from the policy, automobile consumption, household appliances consumption in 2009, \”hot\” in 2010 still will be \”sustainable hot.\”
At the same time, consumption will be a \”hundred flowers bloom.\”
From the external demand of view, a lot of receipts in the industry, but most belong to the performance improvement model.
From an investment perspective, infrastructure, the \”cool\”, but the rate of housing starts will still remain strong.
Third, China has entered a stage of moderate inflation, Wuhan shaping.
According to the present situation, apparent inflation in 2010 is unlikely, I am expected inflation figures, according to the major agencies predicted that roughly 3% annual CPI below, PPI annual average of 3.5%
.
According to Phillips curve, indicating that economic growth and with the inflation factor.
Inflation can be predicted using this regard, namely, the famous triangular model.
2 Impact factors are economic growth and supply shocks.
Structure in China\’s CPI, due to the large proportion of total food structure, government control ability, therefore, important factors were: economic growth, international commodity prices, food prices, the price of public goods.
1, economic growth.
Economic growth, provide a breeding ground for the price rise, other Needless to say, we see GDP growth rate of M1 and M2, as well as can be, and characterized by the rapid growth of M1 and M2 that laid the economic growth, inflation, \”seed.\”
2, imported inflation looming.
Members of the imported inflation in 2006 should also remember, now, due to the weak dollar trend emerged, leading to emergence of the international bulk commodities relatively large gains.
In fact, the global economic recovery also contributed to the increased consumption of commodities underpinned prices.
We have seen, agricultural products, non-ferrous metals have also experienced an upward trend, and because the sharp appreciation of the short-term dollar is unlikely, for these commodities formed a new support.
3, public goods, the prices have limited impact.
In the price level at a low resource reform itself when the impact on inflation would be small.
First of all, the proportion of public goods in the CPI is very small, only 12.7%; Secondly, the Government to adjust the rate of public goods is limited, in 2010 there are likely to adjust the electricity and water, we see, natural gas, oil and other broadly equivalent to
the market since.
These factors should primarily be reflected in the PPI, the PPI transmitted to the CPI, but the time lag of about 6 months or so.
Therefore, a limited impact on the CPI.
4, industrial corporate profits increased significantly.
2010 terminals to upgrade the level of demand will drive industry, and for enhancing profitability and provide a strong support.
With the situation in 2009, 2010 earnings growth of about 30% or so.
Terminal demand-pull profits of industrial enterprises.
According to agency prediction model, consumption, investment, export growth of one percentage point each, then pull the corresponding enterprises were 0.62,0.15 and 0.51.
Can be seen that the resumption of business end-positive is obvious.
According to projections, consumer spending in 2010 will boost corporate profits about 18% of export-led in about 10%.
There are also raising interest rates, inflation and other negative factors constitute the pressure, but the overall look, but also to maintain fast growth.
Fifth, the policy will be normalized.
For the economic recovery and moderate inflation, as well as moderate loose monetary policy and active fiscal policy.
I expect that in the second half of monetary policy will be neutral, that is, I used to always talk about exit mechanism of monetary policy.
That is not repeated here.
The latter part of fiscal policy will be the main policy options, this I have said before, our country\’s fiscal space is still very great, because the current U.S. budget deficit for the GDP of 300%, 200% in Japan, the EU is also more than 100%, while China\’s
At present only 60% less, therefore, space is still very great.
Later will be more frequent use of active fiscal policy, I expect, in 2010, monetary policy will shift, but the proactive fiscal policy will not change.
However, there will be regions and areas of change will be more emphasis on less developed regions will be structured for tax cuts and to stimulate domestic demand, as well as pay more attention to people\’s livelihood.
The above five points is a summary of the 2010 new features of the macroeconomic operation, first analyzes the overall economic situation, from the economy\’s \”troika\” began analysis of consumption, exports and investment, indicating a moderate inflation, Wuhan-Guangzhou high-speed rail Hengyang
Station fares, predicted the level of profitability of industrial enterprises to determine the trend of the macro-policy, therefore, from several aspects we can very accurate grasp of the macroeconomic trends, the 2010 has a rough outline.
Talking about the macro, because it is to study the capital market industry and an important basis for range.
For 2010, capital market analysis, the focus in the next set will be based on \”profit + mobility\” two wheels analysis, Hainan high-speed update.
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